The U-shaped Crime Recovery during COVID-19: Evidence from National Crime Rates in Mexico

Abstract

The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level homicides, drug crime, extortion, battery, theft, fraud, property crime, and assault. We track monthly changes in crime rates using an event-study design. Our results show that battery, theft, fraud, property crime, and assault follow a U-shaped trend. The U-shaped indicates that when the lockdown ends, conventional crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.

Keywords: Crime, Pandemic, COVID-19, Mexico

JEL Classification: K4, J18, I15, I14