The U-shaped Crime Recovery during COVID-19: Evidence from National Crime Rates in Mexico

25 Pages Posted: 7 Dec 2020 Last revised: 5 May 2021

See all articles by Lauren Hoehn-Velasco

Lauren Hoehn-Velasco

Georgia State University - Andrew Young School of Policy Studies

Adan Silverio-Murillo

School of Government, Tecnologico de Monterrey

Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar

University Anahuac Mexico, Business and Economics School

Date Written: December 1, 2020

Abstract

The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level homicides, drug crime, extortion, battery, theft, fraud, property crime, and assault. We track monthly changes in crime rates using an event-study design. Our results show that battery, theft, fraud, property crime, and assault follow a U-shaped trend. The U-shaped indicates that when the lockdown ends, conventional crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.

Keywords: Crime, Pandemic, COVID-19, Mexico

JEL Classification: K4, J18, I15, I14

Suggested Citation

Hoehn-Velasco, Lauren and Silverio-Murillo, Adan and Balmori de la Miyar, Jose Roberto, The U-shaped Crime Recovery during COVID-19: Evidence from National Crime Rates in Mexico (December 1, 2020). Andrew Young School of Policy Studies Research Paper Series Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3741795 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3741795

Lauren Hoehn-Velasco

Georgia State University - Andrew Young School of Policy Studies ( email )

Department of Economics
35 Broad Street, 6th Floor
Atlanta, GA 30303-3083
United States

Adan Silverio-Murillo

School of Government, Tecnologico de Monterrey ( email )

Calle del Puente 222
Mexico City, 04210
Mexico

Jose Roberto Balmori de la Miyar (Contact Author)

University Anahuac Mexico, Business and Economics School ( email )

Av de las Torres 131
Olivar de los Padres
Mexico City, Mexico City 01780
Mexico

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
134
Abstract Views
1,273
Rank
380,552
PlumX Metrics