Asset Price Bubbles with Low Interest Rates: Not All Bubbles are Likely to Emerge

34 Pages Posted: 9 Dec 2020

See all articles by Jacopo Bonchi

Jacopo Bonchi

Luiss Guido Carli University

Francesco Simone Lucidi

Sapienza University of Rome

Date Written: December 7, 2020

Abstract

Leveraged asset price bubbles, i.e., boom-bust phases in asset prices accompanied by credit overhangs, are more harmful than unleveraged ones, in terms of financial and macroeconomic stability. If bubbles are not all alike, neither are all bubbles likely? As bubbles are difficult to detect in real-time data, early researches focused on the macroeconomic conditions exacerbating the bubbles' nature. We specifically look at a condition that could become more persistent in the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic: low risk-free interest rates. In an OLG model, we show that the existence condition for a leveraged bubble is more easily met than that of an unleveraged bubble with low interest rates, and thus leveraged bubbly episodes are relatively more likely to emerge than unleveraged ones. Then, we show that this result holds empirically for post-World War II bubbles in advanced economies.

Keywords: Low interest rates, Leveraged bubbles, Unleveraged bubbles

JEL Classification: E43, E44

Suggested Citation

Bonchi, Jacopo and Lucidi, Francesco Simone, Asset Price Bubbles with Low Interest Rates: Not All Bubbles are Likely to Emerge (December 7, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3744344 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3744344

Jacopo Bonchi

Luiss Guido Carli University ( email )

Via O. Tommasini 1
Rome, Roma 00100
Italy

Francesco Simone Lucidi (Contact Author)

Sapienza University of Rome ( email )

Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5
Rome, 00185
Italy

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