Defining Future Trade Relations: Impacts of Developments in COVID Vaccine Treatments and Brexit Negotiations

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only proven to be a health and medical crisis of devastating proportions, but also an economically defining crisis. The impact of its coincidence with recently concluded Brexit negotiations could have been even more significant because a no deal Brexit situation could have heralded several repercussions, not only for the United Kingdom, but also for the Euro bloc. On the 24th December 2020, however, a deal was eventually reached between the UK and the European Union, and following approval of the deal in the UK Parliament on the 30th December 2020, and through ratification of the deal, legislation relating to it became law on the 31st December 2020 – thereby ensuring Brexit negotiations were concluded before expiration of the time line for transitional arrangements – as well as providing a degree of certainty in ensuring that tariffs would not be imposed between both parties – as would have been the case under a “No Deal” scenario.

The importance of the United Kingdom becoming the first country globally, to approve and administer a highly effective COVID-19 vaccine, may, indeed become quite significant, given the need to address medically and economically related issues as swiftly as possible – given possible impending economic uncertainties that could have occurred with a Brexit No Deal situation – all the more important given the expiration timeline for transitional arrangements, scheduled for the 31st December 2020.


How well and effective the UK is able to manage the ongoing COVID pandemic and the administration of COVID vaccines, may prove advantageous, even as it seeks a more independent and sovereign relationship from the EU – as well as establish its laws and regulations. How well the European Union is able to manage the COVID pandemic, travel between countries – as well as arrive at measures to address the economic impacts of the COVID pandemic in the coming months, could also be pivotal in shaping future trade relationships – particularly between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Even as other countries are still contemplating on when and whether to approve some COVID 19 vaccines, and whilst caution is also advocated amidst uncertainty, it appears that certain risks may have to be embraced as a means of offsetting greater risks that could result from having a simultaneous combination of Brexit and COVID-19 uncertainties.


As well as addressing the above-mentioned questions, this paper aims to highlight why recent developments in COVID 19 vaccines approval and administration, not only impact economic outlooks, but also to highlight why future trade and economic relationships may be significantly shaped by recent developments with the “Comprehensive Agreement on Investment” between the EU and China.

Keywords: Brexit transitional arrangements, Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine, FDA, MHRA, mRNA, herd immunity