How SARS-CoV-2 and Comparable Pathogens Can Be Defeated in a Single Day: Description and Mathematical Model of the Carrier Separation Plan (CSP)

20 Pages Posted: 17 Dec 2020

See all articles by Robert Epstein

Robert Epstein

American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology

Connan Houser

American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology

Ruixiao Wang

American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology

Date Written: December 9, 2020

Abstract

A simple, common-sense, three-component procedure – the Carrier Separation Plan (CSP) – can immediately halt the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 or a comparable pathogen, allow the safe reopening of an entire economy without the need for social distancing, and quickly eradicate the pathogen from the population (assuming the pathogen can be killed by the immune systems of the carriers). The three components are (a) nearly simultaneous self-testing for the pathogen by an entire population, followed rapidly by (b) nearly simultaneous self-isolation of carriers, and (c) secondary screening at entrances to facilities where people congregate. After a period of preparation lasting roughly 5 to 10 weeks, these steps could and probably should be taken in a single day. The power of this methodology has already been demonstrated in varying degrees with groups ranging in size from 1,000 to 11 million. Although this plan might seem daunting, its costs are minimal compared to the losses we have incurred by relying on half measures, and the US and other countries have the technological, logistical, and industrial capacities to implement this plan in a matter of weeks. With proper messaging during the weeks leading up to the testing, compliance in such a program is likely to be high given the potential benefits, and because participation is voluntary and testing is noninvasive, the legal and ethical issues associated with such a program are minimal – trivial, in fact, compared to those associated with imposing a months-long lockdown on an entire population. A SIRD/CSP model suggests that the single-day testing and separation procedure will substantially lower the number of infections, even if compliance with the procedure is modest. Modeling also suggests that when long-term secondary screening is added to the one-day procedure, over time, the pathogen is eradicated from the population. This can occur even when compliance with secondary screening is itself relatively low.

Note: Funding: This project was supported from general funds of the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology (AIBRT), a nonprofit, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) organization. No external funding was received.

Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no support from any organisation for the submitted work, no financial relationships with any organisations that might have an interest in the submitted work in the previous three years, and no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.

Keywords: Carrier Separation Plan, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, National Testing Day, secondary screening

Suggested Citation

Epstein, Robert and Houser, Connan and Wang, Ruixiao, How SARS-CoV-2 and Comparable Pathogens Can Be Defeated in a Single Day: Description and Mathematical Model of the Carrier Separation Plan (CSP) (December 9, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3747298 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3747298

Robert Epstein (Contact Author)

American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology ( email )

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HOME PAGE: http://https://aibrt.org

Connan Houser

American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology ( email )

United States

Ruixiao Wang

American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology ( email )

United States

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