Interventions with Positive Side-Effects: Covid-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Infectious Diseases in Europe

27 Pages Posted: 14 Dec 2020

See all articles by Micha Kaiser

Micha Kaiser

University of Hohenheim; Copenhagen Business School - Department of Management, Society and Communication; Zeppelin University

Steffen Otterbach

University of Hohenheim

Alfonso Sousa-Poza

University of Hohenheim - Institute of Household and Consumer Economics; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

David E. Bloom

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Abstract

To assess the efficacy of Covid-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on infectious disease containment in Europe, we first use weekly 2015-20 data on the spread of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to compare the 2019-20 season of these diseases with the previous five. Although the magnitude of results differs between countries, we document much stronger end-of-season declines in infections in the most recent outbreak than in the earlier ones, implying that they may be driven by NPIs implemented in 2020 to combat Covid-19. To test this conjecture, we use detailed country-specific weekly information on Covid-19 NPIs to estimate several panel models that relate NPI implementation to disease incidence across countries. Not only do certain measures significantly reduce the spread of Covid-19, they also curtail the spread of influenza and RSV. Nonetheless, although we identify workplace closures as a particularly effective measure, we find no evidence for the efficacy of other NPIs such as travel restrictions.

JEL Classification: H30, H23, H12, I18

Suggested Citation

Kaiser, Micha and Kaiser, Micha and Otterbach, Steffen and Sousa-Poza, Alfonso and Bloom, David E., Interventions with Positive Side-Effects: Covid-19 Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and Infectious Diseases in Europe. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13927, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3747444 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3747444

Micha Kaiser (Contact Author)

University of Hohenheim ( email )

Fruwirthstr. 48
Stuttgart, 70599
Germany

Copenhagen Business School - Department of Management, Society and Communication ( email )

Zeppelin University ( email )

Am Seemooser Horn 20
Friedrichshafen, Lake Constance 88045
Germany

Steffen Otterbach

University of Hohenheim

Fruwirthstr. 48
Stuttgart, 70599
Germany

Alfonso Sousa-Poza

University of Hohenheim - Institute of Household and Consumer Economics ( email )

Fruwirthstrasse 48
Kavaliershaus 4 116
70599 Stuttgart
Germany
++49 (0)711/459-22863 (Phone)
++49 (0)711/459-23953 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/hhoek/englisch/people/alfonsosousapoza/index.html

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

David E. Bloom

Harvard University - T.H. Chan School of Public Health ( email )

677 Huntington Avenue
Boston, MA MA 02115
United States
617-432-0654 (Phone)

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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