The Rise of the Chinese Communist Party *
70 Pages Posted: 27 Feb 2021 Last revised: 20 May 2024
Date Written: April 20, 2024
Abstract
We examine the historical rise of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in wartime China. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design and several measures to proxy for the Party's rise during the Sino-Japanese War (middle-to-upper-level cadre officials, grassroots party organizations, guerrilla bases), we find that it grew significantly more in counties occupied by the Japanese Army. Its prewar popularity notwithstanding, the same markers are not statistically significant before the war, however. We identify two primary channels behind the CCP's political ascendancy. First, the communists took advantage of the militarily weaker "puppet troops" in charge of administering the loosely held occupied areas. Second, support for the CCP was powered by a strong anti-Japanese sentiment spurred by war suffering, using civilian casualties and rape cases as proxies for the harm inflicted. Finally, the CCP's wartime influence persisted after the war: former Japanese-occupied areas exhibited a significantly higher party membership density from 1950 to 1985.
Keywords: Communist Revolution, Peasant Nationalism, Power Vacuum, War Suffering, Sino-Japanese War JEL Classification Nos.: D74, F51, F52, N45
JEL Classification: D74, F51, F52, N45
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