Perceptive Risk Clusters of European Citizens and NPI Compliance in Face of the COVID-19 Pandemics

32 Pages Posted: 18 Dec 2020 Last revised: 5 Jan 2021

See all articles by Jacques R. Bughin

Jacques R. Bughin

Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECORE) ; McKinsey & Company

Michele Cincera

Université libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, iCite

Dorota Reykowska

NEUROHM

Marcin Żyszkiewicz

NEUROHM

Rafal Ohme

WSB University, Torun

Date Written: December 16, 2020

Abstract

Despite promising announcements on an effective vaccine, the control of the COVID-19 pandemic is critically dependent on the maximal compliance of citizens to a set of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI for short). We use statistical clustering to partition European citizens with regards to their perceptive risks and social attitudes during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and find ten segments to predict, both the extent and mix of protective behaviors adopted. Those segments demonstrate a clear divide in the population, with on one extreme, a segment (standing for 8% of the population) that is self-centered and exhibits low self-risk perception as well as low NPI compliance. The other extreme is composed of a segment (11% of the population) that is more socially oriented, and quite responsive to all protective measures.

As data are survey-based, we adjust responses based on information gap (by reaction time, RT, measurement) of both worry expression and NPI compliance, to confirm the robustness of our results. Further, we extend the notion of worries to be not only health-related but to include financial risk (like losing a job) as well as psychological worries (e.g., feeling alone, or being unable to meet with family and friends), as they prove to drive different NPI behaviors among the population.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemics, Clustering, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Europe

JEL Classification: I12, J22, J23, J33

Suggested Citation

Bughin, Jacques R. and Cincera, Michele and Reykowska, Dorota and Żyszkiewicz, Marcin and Ohme, Rafal, Perceptive Risk Clusters of European Citizens and NPI Compliance in Face of the COVID-19 Pandemics (December 16, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3749926 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3749926

Jacques R. Bughin

Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECORE) ( email )

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Michele Cincera (Contact Author)

Université libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, iCite ( email )

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Dorota Reykowska

NEUROHM ( email )

Poland

Marcin Żyszkiewicz

NEUROHM ( email )

Poland

Rafal Ohme

WSB University, Torun ( email )

Poland

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