When Economic and Health Crises Collide: The Effect of COVID-19 on Political Attitudes

Abstract

To investigate how a unique combination of health and economic crises can shape political attitudes, we conducted a large online survey experiment during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic (June). With a randomised survey flow we varied whether respondents are given COVID-related treatment questions. This design allows us to analyse health and economic effects separately, as well as a national unity component. We find that the crisis has severely undermined trust in politicians, the media and the EU, and has sapped support for social welfare spending financed by taxes. We also uncover a rallying effect around (scientific) expertise and competence, combined with populist policies losing ground. Lastly, we show that the negative effects are mostly due to economic insecurity, whilst the rallying effects are due to health concerns and beliefs in the importance of national unity to navigate the crisis.

Keywords: COVID-19 , Institutional Trust, Political Attitudes, Online Survey Experiment, European Union, Welfare, Taxation, Populism

JEL Classification: D72, H51, H53, H55, O52, P52