Paid Medical Malpractice Claims: How Strongly Does the Past Predict the Future?

33 Pages Posted: 27 Jun 2022 Last revised: 1 Feb 2023

See all articles by Kowsar Yousefi

Kowsar Yousefi

Institute for Management and Planning Studies; Sharif University of Technology

Bernard S. Black

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law

David A. Hyman

Georgetown University Law Center

Date Written: January 31, 2023

Abstract

Using hazard analysis, we study whether various physician characteristics, including prior paid claim history, gender, specialty, years of experience, type of degree (M.D. versus D.O.), country of medical school attendance (U.S. versus non-U.S.), and gender) predict future paid medical malpractice (“med mal”) claims, using detailed data on all licensed physicians and all paid claims in Illinois over a 25-year period. This level of granularity is not available using national data. After controlling for other factors, physicians with a single prior paid claim have a four-fold higher risk of future claims than physicians with zero prior paid claims. Male gender, attending a non-U.S. medical school, and practicing in a high-malpractice-risk specialty all predict higher paid claim risk. Paid claim risk is also higher for physicians with 6-15 prior years of experience than for those who are either earlier or later in their careers. We find having an M.D. (rather than a D.O.) is associated with higher paid claim risk, but only in our multiple-failure models.

Keywords: Medical malpractice, survival analysis

JEL Classification: I18, K13, K40

Suggested Citation

Yousefi, Kowsar and Black, Bernard S. and Hyman, David A., Paid Medical Malpractice Claims: How Strongly Does the Past Predict the Future? (January 31, 2023). Northwestern Law & Econ Research Paper No. 22-13, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3750392 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3750392

Kowsar Yousefi

Institute for Management and Planning Studies ( email )

Tehran, Tehran
Iran
+98(912)5037783 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://imps.ac.ir/yousefi

Sharif University of Technology ( email )

Tehran
Iran

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.gsme.sharif.edu/economics-professors

Bernard S. Black

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law ( email )

375 E. Chicago Ave
Chicago, IL 60611
United States
312-503-2784 (Phone)

David A. Hyman (Contact Author)

Georgetown University Law Center ( email )

600 New Jersey Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20001
United States

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