Analyst Forecasts and Currency Markets

28 Pages Posted: 21 Feb 2021

See all articles by Florian Mair

Florian Mair

Vienna University of Economics and Business

Date Written: December 18, 2020

Abstract

I examine the forecasting performance, directional accuracy, rationality and economic value of analyst forecasts and characteristics of investment portfolios built from these forecasts for 30 currency pairs from 2006 to 2020. My results show that analyst forecasts perform worse than forecasts based on a random walk and forward rates and that they are biased and do not provide significant economic value to investors. Forecasts may strongly deviate from market expectations, while analyst forecast dispersion is positively associated with future currency returns. Portfolios built from analyst forecasts tend to strongly underperform the dollar factor, value, carry and momentum portfolios and are spanned by them. My findings indicate that expected returns extracted from analyst forecasts are negatively related to realized excess returns in FX markets and contribute to the literature on survey-based returns in asset pricing.

Keywords: analyst forecasts, exchange rates, rationality, currency portfolios, investment strategies

JEL Classification: C53, F31, F47, G12

Suggested Citation

Mair, Florian, Analyst Forecasts and Currency Markets (December 18, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3751418 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3751418

Florian Mair (Contact Author)

Vienna University of Economics and Business ( email )

Welthandelsplatz 1
Vienna, Wien 1020
Austria

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