Consequences of a Massive Refugee Influx on Firm Performance and Market Structure

64 Pages Posted: 23 Dec 2020

See all articles by Yusuf Akgündüz

Yusuf Akgündüz

Utrecht University

Yusuf Bağır

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Seyit Cilasun

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Murat G. Kïrdar

Middle East Technical University (METU) - Department of Economics; Bogazici University - Department of Economics

Abstract

This study combines an administrative dataset of the full population of Turkish firms and the setting of the sudden mass migration of Syrian refugees to Turkey to identify the effect of migrants on firm performance and market structure. As a result of the migrant shock, existing firms expand and new firms are established. Quantitatively, a 10 percentage-point rise in migrant-to-native ratio increases average firm sales by 4% and the number of registered firms by 5%. While the number of firms rises, new firms are more likely to be small. The resulting market structure shows less concentration and firms reduce the share of workers formally employed. We further document an increased propensity to export and an increase in the variety of exported products. The impact on exports is driven by a rise in competitiveness of firms in regions hosting Syrians as a decline in export prices is observed. We also uncover evidence for an effect of migrants' skills and networks on exports, as the export value and variety of products to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region increase more than those to the EU region among exporters while the prices of products exported to the two regions show similar changes.

JEL Classification: J15, J61, F16, L11

Suggested Citation

Akgündüz, Yusuf and Bağır, Yusuf and Cilasun, Seyit and Kirdar, Murat G., Consequences of a Massive Refugee Influx on Firm Performance and Market Structure. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13953, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3751846

Yusuf Akgündüz (Contact Author)

Utrecht University ( email )

Vredenburg 138
Utrecht, 3511 BG
Netherlands

Yusuf Bağır

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus
06100 Ankara, 06050
Turkey

Seyit Cilasun

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Murat G. Kirdar

Middle East Technical University (METU) - Department of Economics ( email )

Inonu Bulvari
Ankara
Turkey

Bogazici University - Department of Economics ( email )

Natuk Birkan Building
Bebek
Istanbul, 34342
Turkey

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