The Mortgage-Cash Premium Puzzle

Abstract

All-cash homebuyers account for one-third of U.S. home purchases over 1980-2017. We use multiple datasets and research designs to robustly estimate that mortgaged buyers must pay an 11% premium over all-cash buyers to compensate home sellers for mortgage transaction frictions. A dynamic, representative-seller model implies only a 3% premium, which would suggest an 8% puzzle. Accounting for heterogeneity in selling conditions explains half of this difference, but there is still a puzzle in conditions with high transaction risk. An experimental survey of U.S. homeowners replicates these patterns and suggests that belief distortions can explain the puzzle in these high-risk states.

Keywords: House Prices, Cash Buyers, Asset Pricing Puzzles, Affordability

JEL Classification: G31, R30, G12, G21, G41