The Future of the Elderly Population Health Status: Filling a Knowledge Gap

27 Pages Posted: 23 Dec 2020

See all articles by Vincenzo Atella

Vincenzo Atella

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS); Department of Economics and Finance; University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics

Federico Belotti

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance; University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for Economics and International Studies (CEIS)

Daejung Kim

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Dana Goldman

University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics

Tadeja Gracner

RAND Corporation

Andrea Piano Mortari

Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome Tor Vergata; CEIS Tor Vergata

Bryan Tysinger

University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics

Date Written: December 22, 2020

Abstract

The ageing process in OECD countries calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present the results obtained from several dynamic microsimulation models of the Future Elderly Model (FEM) family for thirteen OECD countries, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable longterm trends in individual health status across OECD. The FEM is a multi-risk multi-morbidity dynamic microsimulation model to project health status and health demand. Given the dynamic structure of the model, we allow individual health status to evolve over time according to individual characteristics. Our model provides forecasts of the evolution of life expectancy and prevalences of major chronic conditions and disabilities, overall, by gender and by education. We find a catch-up of the considered European countries main chronic conditions prevalence with the US and a relevant and persistent educational gradient in the health status of elderly patients. Our findings represent a valid contribution to support policy makers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.

Keywords: Population ageing, Disease burden, Microsimulation, Health care demand, Education gradient, OECD

JEL Classification: I1, J1, J11, J14.

Suggested Citation

Atella, Vincenzo and Belotti, Federico and Kim, Daejung and Goldman, Dana and Gracner, Tadeja and Piano Mortari, Andrea and Tysinger, Bryan, The Future of the Elderly Population Health Status: Filling a Knowledge Gap (December 22, 2020). CEIS Working Paper No. 504, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3753614 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3753614

Vincenzo Atella

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, I-00133
Italy
+39 06 72595648 (Phone)

Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Via Columbia 2
Roma, 00133
Italy

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Via Columbia n.2
I-00133 Rome, 00133
Italy
+39 06 72595635 (Phone)
+30 06 2020 500 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.economia.uniroma2.it/sefemeq/professori/atella/

Federico Belotti (Contact Author)

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance

Via Columbia 2
Rome, RM 00133
Italy

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for Economics and International Studies (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, RM 00133
Italy

Daejung Kim

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Dana Goldman

University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics ( email )

635 Downey Way
Los Angeles, CA 90089-3333
United States

Tadeja Gracner

RAND Corporation

Andrea Piano Mortari

Department of Economics and Finance, University of Rome Tor Vergata ( email )

Via columbia 2
Rome, Rome 00123
Italy

CEIS Tor Vergata ( email )

via Columbia, 2
Rome, rome 00133
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.ceistorvergata.it/area.asp?a=539&oc=817&d=1128

Bryan Tysinger

University of Southern California - Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics ( email )

635 Downey Way
Los Angeles, CA 90089-3333
United States

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
43
Abstract Views
324
PlumX Metrics