The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries

60 Pages Posted: 23 Dec 2020

See all articles by Dimitris Christelis

Dimitris Christelis

Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow; Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples Federico II; Center for Financial Studies (CFS); Netspar

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research; Center for Financial Studies (CFS)

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics; Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Geoff Kenny

European Central Bank (ECB)

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2020

Abstract

Using new panel data from a representative survey of households in the six largest euro area economies, the paper estimates the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on consumption. The panel provides, each month, household-specific indicators of the concern about finances due to Covid-19 from the first peak of the pandemic until October 2020. The results show that this concern causes a significant reduction in non-durable consumption. The paper also explores the potential impact on consumption of government interventions and of another wave of Covid-19, using household-level consumption adjustments to scenarios that involve positive and negative income shocks. Fears of the financial consequences of the pandemic induce a significant reduction in the marginal propensity to consume, an effect consistent with models of precautionary saving and liquidity constraints. The results are robust to endogeneity concerns through use of panel fixed effects and partial identification methods, which account also for time-varying unobservable variables, and provide informative identification regions of the average treatment effect of the concern for Covid-19 under weak assumptions.

JEL Classification: D12, D81, E21, G51, H31

Suggested Citation

Christelis, Dimitrios and Georgarakos, Dimitris and Jappelli, Tullio and Kenny, Geoff, The COVID-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries (December 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15525, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3753925

Dimitrios Christelis (Contact Author)

Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow ( email )

Room 207F, Gilbert Scott Building
University Avenue
Glasgow, Scotland G12 8QQ
United Kingdom
+44 141330 2000 (ext. 0624) (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/staff/dimitrioschristelis/

Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples Federico II ( email )

Via Cintia, Monte S. Angelo
Naples, NA 80126
Italy

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Gr├╝neburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Netspar ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE
Netherlands

Dimitris Georgarakos

European Central Bank (ECB) - Directorate General Research ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 20
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Center for Financial Studies (CFS) ( email )

Gr├╝neburgplatz 1
Frankfurt am Main, 60323
Germany

Tullio Jappelli

University of Naples Federico II - Department of Economics and Statistics ( email )

Via Cintia - Monte S. Angelo
Napoli, 80126
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Center for Studies in Economics and Finance - CSEF

University of Naples Federico II
Via Cinthia - Monte S. Angelo
Napoli, 80146
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.csef.it/people/jappelli.htm

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.cepr.org/researchers/details/rschcontact.asp?IDENT=106354

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

c/o the Royal Academies of Belgium
Rue Ducale 1 Hertogsstraat
1000 Brussels
Belgium

HOME PAGE: http://www.ecgi.org

Geoff Kenny

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

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