The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities

27 Pages Posted: 23 Dec 2020

See all articles by Dominic Rohner

Dominic Rohner

University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Mathias Thoenig

University of Lausanne; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2020

Abstract

This paper reviews the literature on civil conflict and development with an angle on the socio-economic consequences of violence and promising policies for fostering peace. We make four main points. First, one of the reasons why conflict is still often overlooked as key factor for development is that conflict costs are typically under-estimated, in particular for shadow costs of deterrence. Second, there are several types of war-traps that hold countries back -- both economically and politically. Third, for breaking these traps, policies must be calibrated to address jointly both poverty and social tensions, there being a strong macro complementarity between peace and development objectives. We document how "single-minded" policies that ignore this dual challenge can spectacularly fail, and discuss in depth a series of particularly promising policies. Fourth, we highlight the increasing potential of novel data collection methodologies and the need of policy evaluation tools in violent context.

JEL Classification: D74, F51, H56, O10

Suggested Citation

Rohner, Dominic and Thoenig, Mathias, The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro-Complementarities (December 2020). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15574, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3753979

Dominic Rohner (Contact Author)

University of Lausanne ( email )

Quartier Chambronne
Lausanne, Vaud CH-1015
Switzerland

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Mathias Thoenig

University of Lausanne ( email )

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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