Managing Public Transit during a Pandemic: The Trade-Off between Safety and Mobility

34 Pages Posted: 1 Jan 2021

See all articles by Qi Luo

Qi Luo

Industrial Engineering, Clemson University

Marissa Gee

Center for Applied Mathematics

Benedetto Piccoli

Istituto per le Applicazioni del Calcolo M. Picone (IAC-Roma)

Daniel Work

Vanderbilt University

Samitha Samaranayake

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Date Written: December 30, 2020

Abstract

During a pandemic such as COVID-19, managing public transit effectively becomes a critical policy decision. On the one hand, efficient transportation plays a pivotal role in enabling the movement of essential workers and keeping the economy moving. On the other hand, public transit can be a vector for disease propagation due to travelers' proximity within shared and enclosed spaces. Without strategic preparedness, mass transit facilities are potential hotbeds for spreading infectious diseases. Thus, transportation agencies face a complex trade-off when developing context-specific operating strategies for public transit. This work provides a network-based analysis framework for understanding this trade-off, as well as tools for calculating targeted commute restrictions under different policy constraints, e.g., regarding public health considerations (limiting infection levels) and economic activity (limiting the reduction in travel). The resulting plans ensure that the traffic flow restrictions imposed on each route are adaptive to the time-varying epidemic dynamics. A case study based on the COVID-19 pandemic reveals that a well-planned subway system in New York City can sustain 88\% of transit flow while reducing the risk of disease transmission by 50 \% relative to fully-loaded public transit systems. Transport policy-makers can exploit this optimization-based framework to address health-and-economic trade-offs and make proactive transit management plans during an epidemic outbreak.

Keywords: Safety-and-mobility trade-off; Epidemic model; Public transit; Disruption and control

Suggested Citation

Luo, Qi and Gee, Marissa and Piccoli, Benedetto and Work, Daniel and Samaranayake, Samitha, Managing Public Transit during a Pandemic: The Trade-Off between Safety and Mobility (December 30, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3757210 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3757210

Qi Luo (Contact Author)

Industrial Engineering, Clemson University ( email )

227B Freeman Hall
Clemson, SC 29634
United States

Marissa Gee

Center for Applied Mathematics ( email )

Ithaca, NY 14853
United States

Benedetto Piccoli

Istituto per le Applicazioni del Calcolo M. Picone (IAC-Roma) ( email )

00161 Rome
Italy

Daniel Work

Vanderbilt University ( email )

2301 Vanderbilt Place
Nashville, TN 37240
United States

Samitha Samaranayake

Civil and Environmental Engineering ( email )

Ithaca, NY 14853
United States

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