Roadmap to a Roadmap: How Could We Tell When AGI is a ‘Manhattan Project’ Away?

1st International Workshop on Evaluating Progress in Artificial Intelligence - EPAI 2020, Santiago de Compostela, Spain

7 Pages Posted: 6 Feb 2021

See all articles by John-Clark Levin

John-Clark Levin

University of Cambridge

Matthijs M. Maas

Legal Priorities Project; Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge; University of Cambridge - King's College, Cambridge

Date Written: August 28, 2020

Abstract

This paper argues that at a certain point in research toward AGI, the problem may become well-enough theorized that a clear roadmap exists for achieving it, such that a Manhattan Projectlike effort could greatly shorten the time to completion. If state actors perceive that this threshold has been crossed, their incentives around openness and international cooperation may shift rather suddenly, with serious implications for AI risks and the stability of international AI governance regimes. The paper characterizes how such a ‘runway’ period would be qualitatively different from preceding stages of AI research, and accordingly proposes a research program aimed at assessing how close the field of AI is to such a threshold—that is, it calls for the formulation of a ‘roadmap to the roadmap.’

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence, AI, AGI, science, megaproject, surface area

Suggested Citation

Levin, John-Clark and Maas, Matthijs M., Roadmap to a Roadmap: How Could We Tell When AGI is a ‘Manhattan Project’ Away? (August 28, 2020). 1st International Workshop on Evaluating Progress in Artificial Intelligence - EPAI 2020, Santiago de Compostela, Spain, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3757387

John-Clark Levin

University of Cambridge ( email )

Trinity Ln
Cambridge, CB2 1TN
United Kingdom

Matthijs M. Maas (Contact Author)

Legal Priorities Project ( email )

1427 Cambridge St
#5
Cambridge, MA 02139
United States

Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge ( email )

Trinity Ln
Cambridge, CB2 1TN
United Kingdom

University of Cambridge - King's College, Cambridge

King's Parade
Cambridge, CB2 1ST
United Kingdom

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