Make It or Break It: Vaccination Intent at the Time of COVID-19

35 Pages Posted: 1 Jan 2021 Last revised: 3 Mar 2021

See all articles by Jacques R. Bughin

Jacques R. Bughin

Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECORE) ; McKinsey & Company

Michele Cincera

Université libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, iCite

Kelly Peters

BEworks; University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management

Dorota Reykowska

NEUROHM

Marcin Żyszkiewicz

NEUROHM

Rafal Ohme

WSB University, Torun

Date Written: December 30, 2020

Abstract

This research updates early studies on the intention to be vaccinated against the COVID-19 virus among a representative sample of adults in 6 European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the UK) and differentiated by groups of “acceptors”, “refusers”, and “ hesitants”. The research relies on a set of traditional logistic and more complex Random Forest classification techniques to determine common predictors of vaccination preferences. The findings highlight that socio-demographics are not a reliable measure of vaccination propensity, after one controls for different risk perceptions, and illustrates the key role of institutional and peer trust for vaccination success. Policymakers must build vaccine promotion techniques differentiated according to “acceptors”, “refusers”, and “ hesitants”, while restoring much larger trust in their actions upfront since the pandemics, if one wishes the vaccination coverage to close part of the gap to the level of herd immunity.

Keywords: COVID-19, vaccine strategy, deconfinement, priority groups, random-forest, tree classification

JEL Classification: I12, J22, J23, J33

Suggested Citation

Bughin, Jacques R. and Cincera, Michele and Peters, Kelly and Reykowska, Dorota and Żyszkiewicz, Marcin and Ohme, Rafal, Make It or Break It: Vaccination Intent at the Time of COVID-19 (December 30, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3757618 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3757618

Jacques R. Bughin

Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECORE) ( email )

Ave. Franklin D Roosevelt, 50 - C.P. 114
Brussels, B-1050
Belgium
00 32 2 645 4230 (Phone)
00 32 2 646 4548 (Fax)

McKinsey & Company ( email )

avenue Louise 480 B23
Brussels, Quebec 1050
Belgium

Michele Cincera (Contact Author)

Université libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, iCite ( email )

42 Av Franklin Roosevelt
1050
Brussels
Belgium
+3226504151 (Phone)
+3226504305 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sbsem.ulb.be/research/research-centres/icite/about-icite

Kelly Peters

BEworks ( email )

Canada

University of Toronto - Rotman School of Management ( email )

105 St. George Street
Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E6 M5S1S4
Canada

Dorota Reykowska

NEUROHM ( email )

Poland

Marcin Żyszkiewicz

NEUROHM ( email )

Poland

Rafal Ohme

WSB University, Torun ( email )

Poland

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
219
Abstract Views
1,321
rank
194,465
PlumX Metrics