The Assumption that the Relationship between Monetary Easing and Inflation is Positive is Spurious

12 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2021

Date Written: January 11, 2021

Abstract

The ECB stands by their monetary policy strategy of extremely low interest rates and large asset purchase programs in order to achieve their target inflation. However, using existing research, this paper demonstrates the decoupling of the relationship between monetary policy and inflation. There are two complementary theories which explain this. First, the negative interest rates drive people to save (or invest) rather than spend the money created through the asset purchase programs. The second theory links inflation with trends like globalization and demographics – a larger supply in labour (as we have seen in the last three decades) drives wages and hence inflation down. The lack of clear scientific and practical evidence for using a loose monetary policy to reach a specific inflation target raises the question of whether there is another motive behind the ECB’s current, ongoing strategy.

Keywords: Monetary Policy, Inflation

JEL Classification: E4, E5, E7

Suggested Citation

Allen, Emily M. and Geels, Harry J., The Assumption that the Relationship between Monetary Easing and Inflation is Positive is Spurious (January 11, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3763499 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3763499

Emily M. Allen

Independent ( email )

Harry J. Geels (Contact Author)

Auréus Group ( email )

Wilhelminakade 1
Rotterdam, 3072AP
Netherlands
0031646412515 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.aureus.eu

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
94
Abstract Views
487
rank
372,742
PlumX Metrics