Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries
64 Pages Posted: 26 Jan 2021
Date Written: December 2020
In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.
JEL Classification: C53, E52, G01, O11, E32, E31, G32, Q02
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