Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries

64 Pages Posted: 26 Jan 2021

See all articles by Hans Weisfeld

Hans Weisfeld

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Irineu de Carvalho Filho

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Fabio Comelli

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Rahul Giri

International Monetary Fund

Klaus-Peter Hellwig

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department

Chengyu Huang

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Li Liu

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Alexis Mayer Cirkel

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Andrea Presbitero

Johns Hopkins University

Date Written: December 2020

Abstract

In recent years, Fund staff has prepared cross-country analyses of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in low-income countries, focusing on the risk of sharp declines in economic growth and of debt distress. We discuss routes to broadening this focus by adding several macroeconomic and macrofinancial vulnerability concepts. The associated early warning systems draw on advances in predictive modeling.

JEL Classification: C53, E52, G01, O11, E32, E31, G32, Q02

Suggested Citation

Weisfeld, Hans and de Carvalho Filho, Irineu and Comelli, Fabio and Giri, Rahul and Hellwig, Klaus-Peter and Huang, Chengyu and Liu, Li and Lizarazo Ruiz, Sandra and Mayer Cirkel, Alexis and Presbitero, Andrea, Predicting Macroeconomic and Macrofinancial Stress in Low-Income Countries (December 2020). IMF Working Paper No. 2020/289, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3772495

Hans Weisfeld (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Irineu De Carvalho Filho

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Fabio Comelli

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Rahul Giri

International Monetary Fund ( email )

Kuwait

Klaus-Peter Hellwig

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Fiscal Affairs Department ( email )

700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Chengyu Huang

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Li Liu

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Sandra Lizarazo Ruiz

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Alexis Mayer Cirkel

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Andrea Presbitero

Johns Hopkins University ( email )

1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036-1984
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/presbitero/

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
14
Abstract Views
42
PlumX Metrics