The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

63 Pages Posted: 27 Jan 2021 Last revised: 25 Apr 2021

See all articles by Cem Cakmakli

Cem Cakmakli

Koc University - Department of Economics

Selva Demiralp

Koc University - Department of Economics

Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan

University of Maryland

Sevcan Yesiltas

Koc University

MA Yildirim

Koc University

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Date Written: January 2021

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, can be higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economic-epidemiological framework that combines a SIR model with international production and trade networks. Based on this framework, we estimate the costs for 65 countries and 35 sectors. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.

Suggested Citation

Cakmakli, Cem and Demiralp, Selva and Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem and Yesiltas, Sevcan and Yildirim, MA, The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks (January 2021). NBER Working Paper No. w28395, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3772642

Cem Cakmakli (Contact Author)

Koc University - Department of Economics ( email )

Rumeli Feneri Yolu
Sariyer 80910, Istanbul
Turkey

Selva Demiralp

Koc University - Department of Economics ( email )

Rumeli Feneri Yolu
Sariyer 80910 Istanbul
Turkey
+212 338 1842 (Phone)

Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan

University of Maryland ( email )

College Park
College Park, MD 20742
United States

Sevcan Yesiltas

Koc University

MA Yildirim

Koc University

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