Hedging Stocks with Oil
Date Written: January 29, 2021
We study the feasibility of hedging stocks with oil. The Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) approach allows for the calculation of optimal hedge ratios and corresponding hedge portfolio returns. Our results show that there are distinct economic benefits from hedging stocks with oil, although the effectiveness of hedging is both time-varying and market-state-dependent. The event of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is shown to affect the effectiveness of hedging. During the GFC, a positive jump in the hedge ratios occurs and hedge effectiveness increases. Among a set of common financial and macroeconomic drivers, we identify the implied volatility index VIX as being the most important. During times of global financial uncertainty, investors reduce stock positions more than commodity positions, thus VIX shocks negatively affect the portfolio returns of stock-oil hedges. The results also show that an appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the euro is associated with reduced hedge portfolio returns. From the GFC onwards, we document an increased significance of the gold price and the term spread in explaining hedge portfolio returns.
Keywords: Beta-hedge, Brent oil, Commodities, Economic policy uncertainty (EPU), Hedge ratio, International asset pricing, Market risk, Systemic risk, WTI oil, VIX
JEL Classification: F15,F2,F36,G10,G15
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