A penalized two-pass regression to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia

38 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2021 Last revised: 19 Oct 2021

See all articles by Gaetan Bakalli

Gaetan Bakalli

Auburn University

Stéphane Guerrier

University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management

O. Scaillet

Swiss Finance Institute - University of Geneva

Date Written: January 31, 2021

Abstract

We develop a penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings. The penalization in the first pass enforces sparsity for the time-variation drivers while also maintaining compatibility with the no arbitrage restrictions by regularizing appropriate groups of coefficients. The second pass delivers risk premia estimates to predict equity excess returns. Our Monte Carlo results and our empirical results on a large cross-sectional data set of US individual stocks show that penalization without grouping can yield to nearly all estimated time-varying models violating the no arbitrage restrictions. Moreover, our results demonstrate that the proposed method reduces the prediction errors compared to a penalized approach without appropriate grouping or a time-invariant factor model.

Keywords: two-pass regression, predictive modeling, large panel, factor model, LASSO penalization.

JEL Classification: C13, C23, C51, C52, C53, C55, C58, G12, G17

Suggested Citation

Bakalli, Gaetan and Guerrier, Stéphane and Scaillet, Olivier, A penalized two-pass regression to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia (January 31, 2021). Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 21-09, Proceedings of Paris December 2021 Finance Meeting EUROFIDAI - ESSEC, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3777215 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3777215

Gaetan Bakalli

Auburn University ( email )

415 West Magnolia Avenue
Auburn, AL 36849
United States

Stéphane Guerrier

University of Geneva - Geneva School of Economics and Management ( email )

Uni Mail
Bd du Pont-d'Arve 40
Geneva, 1211
Switzerland

Olivier Scaillet (Contact Author)

Swiss Finance Institute - University of Geneva ( email )

Geneva
Switzerland

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