PEAD.txt: Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Using Text
85 Pages Posted: 22 Apr 2021
Date Written: April 9, 2021
We construct a new numerical measure of earnings announcement surprises, standardized unexpected earnings call text (SUE.txt), that does not explicitly incorporate the reported earnings value. SUE.txt generates a text-based post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD.txt) larger than the classic PEAD and can be used to create a profitable trading strategy. The magnitude of PEAD.txt is considerable even in recent years when the classic PEAD is close to zero. Leveraging the prediction model underlying SUE.txt, we propose new tools to study the news content of text: paragraph-level SUE.txt and paragraph classification scheme based on the business curriculum. With these tools, we document many asymmetries in the distribution of news across content types, demonstrating that earnings calls contain a wide range of news about firms and their environment.
Keywords: PEAD, Machine Learning, NLP, Text Analysis
JEL Classification: G14, G12, C00
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation