The Disposition Effect in Boom and Bust Markets
65 Pages Posted: 5 Feb 2021 Last revised: 27 Jan 2022
Date Written: January 26, 2022
Prior findings on the disposition effect are derived from data sets which mostly cover boom periods. However, since the drivers of the disposition effect (preferences and beliefs of investors) tend to behave countercyclically, it is crucial to study entire market cycles. We use individual investor trading data from Germany covering several boom and bust periods (2001- 2015). We show that the disposition effect is countercyclical, being higher during busts than booms. Investors are 26% more likely to realize gains in market downturns. Changes in investors’ selling behavior can be linked to changes in risk aversion and beliefs across financial market cycles.
Keywords: Disposition Effect, Financial Market Cycles, Household Finance, Retail Investor
JEL Classification: D14, G11, G28, G40, G51
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation