Liquidation, Leverage and Optimal Margin in Bitcoin Futures Markets

Abstract

Using the generalized extreme value theory to characterize tail distributions, we address liqui- dation, leverage, and optimal margins for bitcoin long and short futures positions. The empirical analysis of perpetual bitcoin futures on BitMEX shows that (1) daily forced liquidations to out- standing futures are substantial at 3.51%, and 1.89% for long and short; (2) investors got forced liquidation do trade aggressively with average leverage of 60X; and (3) exchanges should elevate current 1% margin requirement to 33% (3X leverage) for long and 20% (5X leverage) for short to reduce the daily margin call probability to 1%. Our results further suggest normality assumption on return significantly underestimates optimal margins. Policy implications are also discussed.

Keywords: Bitcoin futures; Liquidation; Margin; Leverage; Generalized extreme value theory

JEL Classification: G11, G13, G32