Real Effects of the ECB's Quantitative Easing: A Housing Portfolio Channel

Abstract

We propose a new housing portfolio channel through which QE affects output. In response to QE, intermediaries rebalance portfolios from bonds to houses, lowering the return to saving and stimulating consumption and output. We study this channel empirically in a German housing boom without credit boom. Identification exploits regional variation in land scarcity to measure exposure. Our channel accounts for 60-80% of the total QE impact, with the term spread, the credit, collateral and wealth channels accounting for the remainder. To illustrate our channel, we also set up a simple portfolio model with preferred habitat investing in local housing markets.

Keywords: Asset Market Segmentation, Buy-to-let, Housing Portfolio Channel, Quantitative Easing, Germany, Rental Yields, House Prices

JEL Classification: E3, E4, E5, R3