Download This PaperResolving a Paradox: Retail Trades Positively Predict Returns but are Not Profitable
67 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2021 Last revised: 22 Mar 2023
Date Written: March 15, 2023
Abstract
Retail order imbalance positively predicts returns, but on average retail investor trades lose money. Why? Order imbalance tests equally weight stocks, but retail purchases concentrate in attention-grabbing stocks that subsequently underperform. Long-short strategies based on extreme quintiles of retail order imbalance earn dismal annualized returns of -15.3% among stocks with heavy retail trading but earn 6.8% among other stocks. Our results reconcile the literatures on the performance of retail investors, the predictive content of retail order imbalance, and attention-induced trading and returns. Smaller retail trades concentrate more in attention-grabbing stocks and perform worse.
Keywords: Individual Investors, Attention, Retail Trading, Return Predictability, Order Imbalance
JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14, G40, G41
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Brad M. Barber
University of California, Davis ( email )
Graduate School of Management
One Shields Avenue
Davis, CA 95616
United States
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Terrance Odean
University of California, Berkeley - Haas School of Business ( email )
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Berkeley, CA 94720
United States
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510-666-2561 (Fax)