The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks

63 Pages Posted: 11 Feb 2021

See all articles by Cem Cakmakli

Cem Cakmakli

Koc University - Department of Economics

Selva Demiralp

Koc University - Department of Economics

Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan

University of Maryland

Sevcan Yesiltas

Koc University

Muhammed A. Yildirim

Koc University - Department of Economics; Harvard University - Center for International Development (CID)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2021

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The ar-rival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. We show that the global GDP loss of not inoculating all the countries, relative to a counterfactual of global vaccinations, is higher than the cost of manufacturing and distributing vaccines globally. We use an economic-epidemiological model of international production and trade networks and calibrate the model to 65 countries. Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pan-demic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.

Suggested Citation

Cakmakli, Cem and Demiralp, Selva and Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem and Yesiltas, Sevcan and Yildirim, Muhammed A., The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks (January 2021). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP15710, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3783936

Cem Cakmakli (Contact Author)

Koc University - Department of Economics ( email )

Rumeli Feneri Yolu
Sariyer 80910, Istanbul
Turkey

Selva Demiralp

Koc University - Department of Economics ( email )

Rumeli Feneri Yolu
Sariyer 80910 Istanbul
Turkey
+212 338 1842 (Phone)

Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan

University of Maryland ( email )

College Park
College Park, MD 20742
United States

Sevcan Yesiltas

Koc University

Muhammed A. Yildirim

Koc University - Department of Economics ( email )

Rumeli Feneri Yolu
Sariyer 80910, Istanbul
Turkey

Harvard University - Center for International Development (CID) ( email )

One Eliot Street Building
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

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