Arctic 2050: Mapping the Future of the Arctic

SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies

100 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2021

See all articles by Anastasia Lazariva

Anastasia Lazariva

Moscow School of Management - Skolkovo Institute for Emerging Market Studies

Alexey Kalinin

SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management - SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies

Alexandra Middleton

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Frode Nilssen

Nord University

Anastasia Belostotskaya

SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management - SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies

Date Written: January 27, 2021

Abstract

The Arctic 2050 research aims to identify how institutional and innovation development can make the intensification of economic activity in the Arctic a key driver of the sustainable development of the region, including social and environmental perspectives. The research explores the current regional developments, global challenges, the role and interests of key stakeholders, as well as the possibilities of international cooperation in the transforming geopolitical context. The volatile dynamics, complexity, and interdependence of the regional driving forces make the future Arctic landscape extremely uncertain and ambiguous. To navigate the future of the Arctic we apply a scenario approach for mapping the possible futures.

We develop four narratives for the Arctic until 2050 describing the possible implications of the intensification of the economic activity in the region, the establishment of the Arctic technological platform, and the development of the Arctic cities. We discuss threats and opportunities in each scenario offering recommendations for the leadership agenda in business, policy, and the third sector.

Keywords: Arctic, Sustainable Development, Scenarios, International Relations, International Cooperation, Arctic Council, Arctic States

Suggested Citation

Lazariva, Anastasia and Kalinin, Alexey and Middleton, Alexandra and Nilssen, Frode and Belostotskaya, Anastasia, Arctic 2050: Mapping the Future of the Arctic (January 27, 2021). SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies , Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3784762

Anastasia Lazariva (Contact Author)

Moscow School of Management - Skolkovo Institute for Emerging Market Studies ( email )

No. 8 Beichendong Road, Unit 1608
Chaoyang District
Beijing, Beijing 100101
China

Alexey Kalinin

SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management - SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies ( email )

No. 8 Beichendong Road, Unit 1608
Chaoyang District
Beijing, Beijing 100101
China

Alexandra Middleton

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Frode Nilssen

Nord University ( email )

Universitetsalléen 11
8049 Bodo
Norway

Anastasia Belostotskaya

SKOLKOVO Moscow School of Management - SKOLKOVO Institute for Emerging Market Studies ( email )

No. 8 Beichendong Road, Unit 1608
Chaoyang District
Beijing, Beijing 100101
China

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