Crime in the Era of COVID-19: Evidence from England

41 Pages Posted: 16 Feb 2021

See all articles by Kyriakos C. Neanidis

Kyriakos C. Neanidis

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences

Maria Paola Rana

Salford University

Date Written: February 12, 2021

Abstract

The rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the prescribed countermeasures of restrictions to mobility and social distancing are disrupting economic activity around the world. This applies to legal economic activity but also to criminal behavior and illegal activity. In this study, we investigate the effects of COVID-19-induced lockdowns on recorded crime in England. The enforcement of lockdowns in the country at both the national and local levels, temporally and spatially, allows unveiling the impact on criminal activities by type of shutdown policy. We use official crime data across the universe of local authorities dating back to May 2013 for all recorded crime categories. We find that (1) National lockdowns decrease all types of criminal behavior, except for anti-social behavior, drug offences and crimes against public order which are recording increases. (2) Relaxing national lockdown restrictions attenuates the initial crime effects of strict lockdowns across all crimes. (3) Local lockdowns affect fewer crime categories, limited to increasing anti-social behavior and weapons possession offences and decreasing bicycle theft and other theft violations, with findings being driven by late-entry areas of such policies. (4) A change in the local lockdown scheme implemented by the government in October 2020 does not have a markedly dissimilar effect on criminal activity compared to the earlier scheme. (5) Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that government-mandated lockdowns reduced the economic costs of crime by approximately £4.3 billion for the country as a whole (in 2020 British pounds).

Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, Crime, Lockdown, Police

JEL Classification: I18, K14, K42

Suggested Citation

Neanidis, Kyriakos C. and Rana, Maria Paola, Crime in the Era of COVID-19: Evidence from England (February 12, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3784821 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3784821

Kyriakos C. Neanidis (Contact Author)

University of Manchester - School of Social Sciences ( email )

Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL
United Kingdom
+44-161-275-4832 (Phone)
+44-161-275-4812 (Fax)

Maria Paola Rana

Salford University ( email )

Salford Business School
University of Salford, Manchester
M5 4WT
United Kingdom

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