What Works to Control COVID-19? Econometric Analysis of a Cross-Country Panel

44 Pages Posted: 16 Feb 2021

See all articles by Liming Chen

Liming Chen

Asian Development Bank

David Raitzer

Asian Development Bank

Rana Hasan

Asian Development Bank; University of Maryland - Department of Economics

Rouselle Lavado

Asian Development Bank

Orlee Velarde

Asian Development Bank

Date Written: December 4, 2020

Abstract

We use cross-country panel data to examine the effects of a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions used by governments to suppress the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We find that while lockdown measures lead to reductions in disease transmission rates as captured by the reproduction number, R_t, gathering bans appear to be more effective than workplace and school closures, both of which are associated with large declines in gross domestic product. Further, our estimates suggest that stay-at-home orders are less effective in countries with larger family size and in developing economies. We also find that incentives are very important, as efforts at ramping up testing and tracing COVID-19 cases are more effective in controlling the spread of disease in countries with greater coverage of paid sick leave benefits. As future waves of the disease emerge, the use of more targeted and better incentivized measures can help keep the epidemic controlled at lower economic cost.

Keywords: COVID-19, cross-country data, economic impact, nonpharmaceutical interventions

JEL Classification: I10, I18, and O40

Suggested Citation

Chen, Liming and Raitzer, David and Hasan, Rana and Lavado, Rouselle and Velarde, Orlee, What Works to Control COVID-19? Econometric Analysis of a Cross-Country Panel (December 4, 2020). Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series No. 625, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3785083 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3785083

Liming Chen (Contact Author)

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

David Raitzer

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Rana Hasan

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

University of Maryland - Department of Economics ( email )

College Park, MD 20742
United States
808-944-7590 (Phone)
808-944-7399 (Fax)

Rouselle Lavado

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Orlee Velarde

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

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