COVID-19 Endemism and the Control Skeptics

36 Pages Posted: 16 Feb 2021 Last revised: 10 Mar 2021

See all articles by Jacques R. Bughin

Jacques R. Bughin

Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECORE) ; McKinsey & Company

Michele Cincera

Université libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, iCite

Dorota Reykowska

NEUROHM

Marcin Żyszkiewicz

NEUROHM

Rafal Ohme

WSB University, Torun

Date Written: January 26, 2021

Abstract

This paper analyses the widespread difference in COVID-19 vaccination and Non-Pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) acceptance by the European population and finds that this difference can be clustered in nine archetype clusters. Calibrating a SIR model with control acceptance on COVID-19 pandemics, it is also estimated that three anti-control segments (standing in aggregate for 15% of the population) may be contributing to the entire bulk of the endemism of the COVID-19. While poorly compliant segments have lower risk perception than others, tend to be younger, and less educated, or are more self-centric, trust with respect to media, governmental, and healthcare institutions are significantly shaping control acceptance by the population. In particular, the way to overturn a large set of vaccination “hesitant” (20% of the population), must pass by rebuilding much higher trust in how the current crisis is managed by the government and healthcare system.

Keywords: COVID-19, Pandemic Endemism, vaccine strategy, Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions, SIR

JEL Classification: I12, J22, J23, J33

Suggested Citation

Bughin, Jacques R. and Cincera, Michele and Reykowska, Dorota and Żyszkiewicz, Marcin and Ohme, Rafal, COVID-19 Endemism and the Control Skeptics (January 26, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3785230 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3785230

Jacques R. Bughin

Université Libre de Bruxelles (ULB) - European Center for Advanced Research in Economics and Statistics (ECORE) ( email )

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Michele Cincera (Contact Author)

Université libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, iCite ( email )

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Dorota Reykowska

NEUROHM ( email )

Poland

Marcin Żyszkiewicz

NEUROHM ( email )

Poland

Rafal Ohme

WSB University, Torun ( email )

Poland

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