Economic Competition and Civilian Support for Rebel Reintegration

34 Pages Posted: 23 Feb 2021

See all articles by Amanda Kennard

Amanda Kennard

Stanford University - Department of Political Science

Konstantin Sonin

University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy; Higher School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Austin L. Wright

University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy

Date Written: February 01, 2021

Abstract

Economic considerations play a critical role in combatants' participation in civil conflict. We bring novel evidence to bear on a related, but under-studied question: do economic considerations impact civilian support for conflict termination? Reconciliation depends on successful reintegration of ex-combatants into the peace-time economy. However, competitive considerations may undermine civilian support for reintegration. We provide evidence for this claim employing a quasi-experimental approach, leveraging localized effects of the 2015 Hindu Kush earthquake and individual-level survey data on support for Taliban reintegration. The earthquake reduced support for reintegration into disproportionately impacted economic sectors. We find no change in support for reintegration into unaffected sectors. The results are robust to a battery of tests including a novel spatial randomization with geocoded fault line segments representing the universe of counterfactual earthquakes. Our findings provide new insight into the economics of conflict resolution: economic considerations may undermine civilian support for rebel reintegration.

Keywords: civil war, reintegration, economic shocks, Afghanistan, earthquakes, natural disasters

Suggested Citation

Kennard, Amanda and Sonin, Konstantin and Wright, Austin L., Economic Competition and Civilian Support for Rebel Reintegration (February 01, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3787705 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3787705

Amanda Kennard

Stanford University - Department of Political Science ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Konstantin Sonin

University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy ( email )

1155 East 60th Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

Higher School of Economics ( email )

20 Myasnitskaya street
Moscow, 119017
Russia

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Austin L. Wright (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy ( email )

1307 E 60th St
Chicago, IL IL 60637
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.austinlwright.com

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