COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment

19 Pages Posted: 19 Feb 2021

See all articles by Barend Abeln

Barend Abeln

Independent

Jan P. A. M. Jacobs

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 18, 2021

Abstract

The COVID-19 crisis has a huge impact on economies all over the world. In this note we compare seasonal adjustments of X13 and CAMPLET before and after the COVID19 crisis. We show results of Quasi Real Time analyses for the quarterly series real GDP and the monthly series Consumption of Households in the Netherlands, and STL and CAMPLET seasonal adjustments for the weekly series US Initial Claims. We find that differences in SA values are generally small and that X13 and STL seasonal adjustments are subject to revision. From the analysis of the weekly series initial claims we learn that STL and CAMPLET SAs follow NSA values closely. In addition, the COVID-19 crisis caused a structural increase in initial claims. Before the crisis initial claims fluctuated around a lower level than after the crisis.

Keywords: COVID-19 Crisis, Seasonal Adjustment, Real GDP, Consumption of Households, Initial Claims

JEL Classification: C22, E24

Suggested Citation

Abeln, Barend and Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., COVID-19 and Seasonal Adjustment (February 18, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3788235 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3788235

Barend Abeln (Contact Author)

Independent ( email )

No Address Available

Jan P.A.M. Jacobs

University of Groningen - Faculty of Economics and Business ( email )

Postbus 72
9700 AB Groningen
Netherlands

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