Download This PaperAre Presidential Primaries Stationary?
18 Pages Posted: 26 Feb 2021 Last revised: 17 Mar 2021
Date Written: February 19, 2021
Abstract
In 1988 Larry Bartels advanced the theory of “momentum” in presidential primaries, but ultimately dismissed the notion. Since that time however “momentum” has been demonstrated to exist in financial markets, suggesting that Bartels’ dismissal may have been premature. In this paper I perform a test of whether presidential primaries are non-stationary—which they must be for the “momentum” hypothesis to have any validity.
Keywords: Larry Bartels, Momentum, Cliff Asness, Benoit Mandelbrot, Eugene Fama, Stationary
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Lane, Daniel J., Are Presidential Primaries Stationary? (February 19, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3788637 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3788637
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