Epidemiological Philosophy of Pandemics

14 Pages Posted: 24 Feb 2021 Last revised: 4 Apr 2021

Date Written: February 20, 2021

Abstract

Objectives: Current estimates of the total number of cases of COVID-19 are largely based on previously determined case fatality rates (CFRs). In this study, we aim to find an association between the Covid-19 number of cases / million inhabitants (M) and mortality rate (MR), and the association of Covid MR -19 and CFR. The background theory in this study is based on two factors: (1) There is no evidence that the CFR is fixed throughout time or place during an epidemic and (2) there is evidence that an increased viral load (density of infection) leads to more fatalities.

Study Design: We chose 31 countries with testing coverage levels of > 400,0000 tests /M and populations greater than 1 million inhabitants.

Methods: We used ANOVA regression analyses to test the associations.

Results: There was a very highly significant correlation between MR and the total number of cases/ million population inhabitants(M) (P-value 0.0000). The CRF changed with a change in the MR. A very high positive influence of the COVID-19 MR on the CFR (P-value = 0.0002).

Conclusions: Increased number of cases per million inhabitants is associated with increased MR. Increased MR is associated with increased CFR .This finding might explain variable mortality rates that happened during this pandemic and possibly previous pandemics. This evidence will give us an idea of the behavior of epidemics in general.

Note: Funding Statement: There is no funding source.

Declaration of Interests: There are no conflicts of interest.

Keywords: COVID-19; CFR; MR; Pandemic; Epidemic

Suggested Citation

Raham, Tareef Fadhil, Epidemiological Philosophy of Pandemics (February 20, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3789738 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3789738

Tareef Fadhil Raham (Contact Author)

Ministry of Health, Iraq ( email )

Iraq

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