Vaccinating the world’s population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the problem faced by governments in determining the scale and structure of procurement for vaccines. We analyze alternative approaches to procurement. We find that if the goal is to accelerate the vaccine delivery timetable, buyers should directly fund manufacturing capacity and shoulder most of the risk of failure, while maintaining some direct incentives for speed. We analyzed the optimal portfolio of vaccine investments for countries with different characteristics as well as the implications for international cooperation. Our analysis, considered in light of the experience of 2020, suggests lessons for future pandemics.
Ahuja, Amrita and Carleton Athey, Susan and Baker, Arthur and Budish, Eric B. and Camilo Castillo, Juan and Glennerster, Rachel and Kominers, Scott Duke and Kremer, Michael and Lee, Jean Nahrae and Prendergast, Canice and Snyder, Christopher M. and Tabarrok, Alexander T. and Tan, Brandon and Więcek, Witold, Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability (February 2021). NBER Working Paper No. w28492, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3790230
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