Data and Methodology Documentation for a COVID-19 Risk Calculator: Mortality Rates and Loss of Life Expectancy
82 Pages Posted: 27 May 2021 Last revised: 27 Aug 2021
Date Written: August 27, 2021
We develop careful cohort-based estimates of median life expectancy without COVID, COVID population fatality rates (PFRs) for three areas (Cook County, Illinois; Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, and the State of Indiana), and expected life expectancy lost due to COVID. We examine how PFR and lost life expectancy vary with age, gender, race/ethnicity, socio-economic status, and common comorbidities. On average, decedents lose about 12 expected life-years (upward biased estimate). Expected life lost to date for our three areas is around 0.016 years; an estimate for the whole U.S. population is 0.02 years (about one week) (upward biased estimates). Expected life lost rises rapidly with age and can be as high as 3 months for some individuals. Expected life lost for whites and Asians in our three areas is around 0.012, but is roughly double this for Blacks and Hispanics. We also provide data and methodology details underlying the COVID-19 Risk Calculator, available at https://fightcovidmilwaukee.org/risk-assessment-tool.
Note: Funding Statement: BSB: Randomized COVID-19 Testing in Vulnerable Communities and Risk
Tool Creation - National Institutes of Health Award 3 UL1 TR001436-06S1
Declaration of Interests: No conflicts.
Ethics Approval Statement: IRB approval - The paper uses only de-identified data, no patient consent is needed or obtained.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation