Data and Methodology Documentation for a COVID-19 Risk Calculator: Mortality Rates and Loss of Life Expectancy

82 Pages Posted: 27 May 2021 Last revised: 27 Aug 2021

See all articles by Paula Natalia Barreto Parra

Paula Natalia Barreto Parra

Northwestern University

Vladimir A. Atanasov

William and Mary - Raymond A. Mason School of Business

John Meurer

Medical College of Wisconsin

Jeff Whittle

Clement J. Zablocki Medical Center - Department of Medicine

Eric Luo

Fitzhugh Mullan Institute for Health Workforce Equity, The George Washington University

Ruohao Zhang

Northwestern University

Bernard S. Black

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law; Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management; European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Date Written: August 27, 2021

Abstract

We develop careful cohort-based estimates of median life expectancy without COVID, COVID population fatality rates (PFRs) for three areas (Cook County, Illinois; Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, and the State of Indiana), and expected life expectancy lost due to COVID. We examine how PFR and lost life expectancy vary with age, gender, race/ethnicity, socio-economic status, and common comorbidities. On average, decedents lose about 12 expected life-years (upward biased estimate). Expected life lost to date for our three areas is around 0.016 years; an estimate for the whole U.S. population is 0.02 years (about one week) (upward biased estimates). Expected life lost rises rapidly with age and can be as high as 3 months for some individuals. Expected life lost for whites and Asians in our three areas is around 0.012, but is roughly double this for Blacks and Hispanics. We also provide data and methodology details underlying the COVID-19 Risk Calculator, available at https://fightcovidmilwaukee.org/risk-assessment-tool.

Note: Funding Statement: BSB: Randomized COVID-19 Testing in Vulnerable Communities and Risk Tool Creation - National Institutes of Health Award 3 UL1 TR001436-06S1

Declaration of Interests: No conflicts.

Ethics Approval Statement: IRB approval - The paper uses only de-identified data, no patient consent is needed or obtained.

Suggested Citation

Barreto Parra, Paula Natalia and Atanasov, Vladimir A. and Meurer, John and Whittle, Jeffrey and Luo, Qian and Zhang, Ruohao and Black, Bernard S., Data and Methodology Documentation for a COVID-19 Risk Calculator: Mortality Rates and Loss of Life Expectancy (August 27, 2021). Northwestern Law & Econ Research Paper No. 21-02, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3795802 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3795802

Paula Natalia Barreto Parra

Northwestern University ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

Vladimir A. Atanasov

William and Mary - Raymond A. Mason School of Business ( email )

P.O. Box 8795
Williamsburg, VA 23187-8795
United States

John Meurer

Medical College of Wisconsin ( email )

United States
4145100375 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.mcw.edu/departments/institute-for-health-and-equity/people/john-meurer-md-mba

Jeffrey Whittle

Clement J. Zablocki Medical Center - Department of Medicine ( email )

5000 W. National Ave.
Milwaukee, WI 53295
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.mcw.edu/display/router.asp?DocID=10377

Qian Luo

Fitzhugh Mullan Institute for Health Workforce Equity, The George Washington University ( email )

2175 K St NW
Washington, DC 20052
United States

Ruohao Zhang

Northwestern University ( email )

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States

HOME PAGE: http://ruohaozhang.weebly.com

Bernard S. Black (Contact Author)

Northwestern University - Pritzker School of Law ( email )

375 E. Chicago Ave
Chicago, IL 60611
United States
312-503-2784 (Phone)

Northwestern University - Kellogg School of Management

2001 Sheridan Road
Evanston, IL 60208
United States
847-491-5049 (Phone)

European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI)

Brussels
Belgium

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