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Aquaculture Over-Optimism

34 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2021 Publication Status: Review Complete

See all articles by U. Rashid Sumaila

U. Rashid Sumaila

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Fisheries Economics Research Unit

Andrea Pierucci

Universita' degli Studi di Cagliari - Department of Life and Environmental Sciences

Muhammed Oyinlola

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries

Rita Cannas

Universita di Cagliari - Department of Environmental and Life Sciences

Rainer Froese

University of Kiel - GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel

Sarah Glasser

One Earth Future - Secure Fisheries

Jennifer Jacquet

New York University (NYU) - Department of Environmental Studies

Brooks Kaiser

University of Southern Denmark - Department of Sociology, Environmental and Business Economics

Ibrahim Issifu

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries

Fiorenza Micheli

Stanford University - Hopkins Marine Station and Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions

Rosamond L. Naylor

Stanford University - Institute for International Studies

Daniel Pauly

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries

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Abstract

The recent rapid growth in aquaculture production reported by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization has resulted in what we denote here as aquaculture over-optimism. An extreme form of which is the notion that we need not worry about depleting wild fish because we can meet the global need for seafood through farming. Here we investigate, whether the recent growth in aquaculture production can be maintained and compare aquaculture production projections with the future need for fish to find out whether aquaculture optimism is justified. We find that aquaculture growth rates in all the cases studied have already reached their peak and have begun declining. Also, our results suggest that for aquaculture alone to supply the projected total global fish demand between 2025 and 2030, it would have to grow by between 11% and 19% per year, rates that are outside the range that been possible to date.

Suggested Citation

Sumaila, U. Rashid and Pierucci, Andrea and Oyinlola, Muhammed and Cannas, Rita and Froese, Rainer and Glasser, Sarah and Jacquet, Jennifer and Kaiser, Brooks and Issifu, Ibrahim and Micheli, Fiorenza and Naylor, Rosamond L. and Pauly, Daniel, Aquaculture Over-Optimism. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3802024 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3802024
This version of the paper has not been formally peer reviewed.

U. Rashid Sumaila (Contact Author)

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Fisheries Economics Research Unit

Vancouver, BC
Canada

Andrea Pierucci

Universita' degli Studi di Cagliari - Department of Life and Environmental Sciences ( email )

Cagliari, 09124
Italy

Muhammed Oyinlola

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries ( email )

Canada

Rita Cannas

Universita di Cagliari - Department of Environmental and Life Sciences ( email )

Cagliari, 09124
Italy

Rainer Froese

University of Kiel - GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel ( email )

Wischhofstrasse 1-3
Kiel, 24148
Germany

Sarah Glasser

One Earth Future - Secure Fisheries ( email )

525 Zang Street, Suite D
Broomfield, CO
United States

Jennifer Jacquet

New York University (NYU) - Department of Environmental Studies ( email )

Bobst Library, E-resource Acquisitions
20 Cooper Square 3rd Floor
New York, NY 10003-711
United States

Brooks Kaiser

University of Southern Denmark - Department of Sociology, Environmental and Business Economics

Campusvej 55
DK-5230 Odense, 5000
Denmark

Ibrahim Issifu

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries ( email )

Canada

Fiorenza Micheli

Stanford University - Hopkins Marine Station and Stanford Center for Ocean Solutions ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Rosamond L. Naylor

Stanford University - Institute for International Studies ( email )

Encina Hall E418
Stanford, CA 94305
United States
650-723-5697 (Phone)
650-725-1992 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://cesp.stanford.edu/people/2181/

Daniel Pauly

University of British Columbia (UBC) - Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries ( email )

2329 West Mall
Vancouver, British Columbia BC V6T 1Z4
Canada

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