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The Role of Population Mobility and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Infection: A Canadian Case Study of Granger-Causal Relationships

14 Pages Posted: 19 Mar 2021

See all articles by Myrtha E. Reyna

Myrtha E. Reyna

University of Toronto - Department of Pediatrics

Boxi Lin

University of Toronto - Division of Biostatistics

Lehang Zhong

University of Toronto - Division of Biostatistics

Michael Jongho Moon

University of Toronto - Department of Statistical Sciences

Mohammad Kaviul Anam Khan

University of Toronto - Division of Biostatistics

Thai-Son Tang

University of Toronto - Division of Biostatistics

More...

Abstract

Background: The Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been the cause of more than 13,350 deaths in Canada. As a result, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been adopted by government officials to mitigate dissemination of the disease. Quantifying NPI effectiveness is challenging due to variability in their implementation between geographic regions. Mobility data can help understand the role of NPIs in reducing COVID-19 cases.

Methods: The data used in this analysis consists of individual level time-series of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in six Canadian provinces, population mobility trends and timing and level of NPI implementation. The Granger causality test was used to assess bi-directional predictive causality between NPIs, mobility and COVID-19 daily cases per 100 000 population.    

Findings: Using data from February 15th to December 28th 2020, we found that implementations of NPI and daily COVID-19 cases causally influence population mobility in all provinces. The relationship between daily cases and NPIs remains unclear.

Conclusion: This study showed that in six Canadian provinces, NPIs and daily cases contributed to minimizing population mobility, but suggested that NPIs may have to be implemented and enforced more promptly to significantly influence the incidence of COVID-19 cases.

Funding: There are no funding sources to disclose.

Declaration of Interests: None to declare

Suggested Citation

Reyna, Myrtha E. and Lin, Boxi and Zhong, Lehang and Moon, Michael Jongho and Khan, Mohammad Kaviul Anam and Tang, Thai-Son, The Role of Population Mobility and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Infection: A Canadian Case Study of Granger-Causal Relationships. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3805847 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3805847

Myrtha E. Reyna (Contact Author)

University of Toronto - Department of Pediatrics ( email )

Toronto
Canada

Boxi Lin

University of Toronto - Division of Biostatistics

105 St George Street
Toronto, M5S 3G8
Canada

Lehang Zhong

University of Toronto - Division of Biostatistics

105 St George Street
Toronto, M5S 3G8
Canada

Michael Jongho Moon

University of Toronto - Department of Statistical Sciences

105 St George Street
Toronto, M5S 3G8
Canada

Mohammad Kaviul Anam Khan

University of Toronto - Division of Biostatistics

105 St George Street
Toronto, M5S 3G8
Canada

Thai-Son Tang

University of Toronto - Division of Biostatistics

105 St George Street
Toronto, M5S 3G8
Canada