Case Fatality Rate Components Based Scenarios for COVID-19 Lockdown

12 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2021

Date Written: March 16, 2021


Background: The important control measure to limit the spread of the pandemic is a lockdown. Current criteria for initiating or releasing lockdown are largely subjective and debatable. Many divergent views are arguing for initiating, continuing, and ending the lockdown.

Aim: This paper aims to find a unique baseline statistically derived standardized model of different options scenarios for lockdown initiation and releasing without the need for a subjective opinion.

Design: Twenty-one countries were chosen. The inclusion criterion was each country should have more than 1 million COVID-19 tests/ M on February 25, 2021. Data is derived regarding reported crude COVID-19 cases /million population inhabitants (CC/M) and COVID-19 deaths/M population inhabitants (CD/M). Case fatality rate (CFR), CC/M and CD/M were used for developing a lockdown model.

Results: the estimated CFR critical value was 1.125. Different estimates of confidence intervals for the critical point were provided. The lower CFR point for confidence interval at 0.0005 p-value was 0.464485, while at 0.05 p-value was 0.829029.

Conclusions: A novel statistical model was developed.

Note: Funding Statement: No funding personals or bodies had any role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

Declaration of Interests: Authors declare that there is no conflicts of interests.

Suggested Citation

Ghalib Al-Naqeeb, Abdulkhaleq Abduljabbar Ali and Raham, Tareef Fadhil, Case Fatality Rate Components Based Scenarios for COVID-19 Lockdown (March 16, 2021). Available at SSRN: or

Abdulkhaleq Abduljabbar Ali Ghalib Al-Naqeeb

Ministry of Higher Education ( email )


Tareef Fadhil Raham (Contact Author)

Ministry of Health, Iraq ( email )


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