Does the Shiller CAPE Predict a Crash of the S&P 500?

8 Pages Posted: 21 Mar 2021

See all articles by Gerhard Lechner

Gerhard Lechner

University of Applied Sciences FH Joanneum; Independent

Date Written: March 17, 2021


Stock markets have rebounded to record highs after the March 2020 crash. First, the Nasdaq hit a high, followed by the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. This paper deals with the question of the valuation of the S&P 500. For this purpose the CAPE Shiller and thus, a forecast for the next 1 to 2 years is to be derived from the current assessment. The current level of the CAPE of the S&P 500 indicates a worrying overvaluation of the index. However, if you look at the US Fed's expansionary monetary policy over the past 20 years, the overvaluation should not be overstated. The author expects the historical peak (December 1999) of CAPE S&P 500 to be surpassed in 2022. After that, the risk of a crash increases significantly.

Keywords: S&P 500, CAPE Shiller, COVID-19, Financial Bubble

JEL Classification: G12, G17

Suggested Citation

Lechner, Gerhard and Lechner, Gerhard, Does the Shiller CAPE Predict a Crash of the S&P 500? (March 17, 2021). Available at SSRN: or

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