2008 Financial Crises vs. COVID-19: The Painful Double-Knock of Food Prices.
- Riveros, J., Hassan, S.M, and Oduniyi, S. (2021). 2008 Financial Crises V.s. COVID 19: The Painful Double-Knock of Food Prices. MSR Working paper No. 001-2021.
18 Pages Posted: 21 Mar 2021
Date Written: March 19, 2021
Food supply and demand chains are highly sensitive to global shocks. Unstable and sudden food price hikes cause serious malnutrition problems and increase the number of food-insecure people, especially in developing countries. Using FAO Food Price Index (FFPI), this study makes one of the first attempts to utilize monthly observations of FFPI in a dynamic time series ARDL and ARX settings for identifying food price effects of the COVDI 19 infection rates V.s. 2008 global financial crises. Our empirical findings confirm that the pandemic has a mild impact on food prices relative to the 2008 crisis, wherein 1 million new COVID 19 infection cases are associated with an increase of only 0.0509 points in FFPI.
Keywords: COVID 19, Food Price Index, ARDL
JEL Classification: I1, E31
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation