The Transition to Electric Vehicles: Incremental or Rapid?
12 Pages Posted: 8 Apr 2021
Date Written: March 22, 2021
It is now conventional wisdom that electric vehicles (EVs) will replace conventional, oil-based, passenger vehicles in the future. This has occurred because of dramatic technological progress, bolstered by government policy support. Despite this consensus, no one really knows how long the transition to EVs will take. This paper claims that two opposing viewpoints on the transition can be discerned from a literature review: one is an incrementalist perspective that views change as gradual and drawn out over decades; the other is an expansionist perspective that claims change is going to happen rapidly with notable results by the end of this decade. This paper reviews the claims of both visions, and discusses the basis for their differing perspectives. And, it posits that even if the expansionist vision prevails, large-scale, near-term carbon reductions should not be expected.
Keywords: electric vehicles, market acceptance, transition
JEL Classification: Public Policy
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation