The Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Migration in Vietnam

20 Pages Posted: 7 Apr 2021

See all articles by Tuan Anh Luong

Tuan Anh Luong

De Montfort University - Faculty of Business and Law

Kien Le

affiliation not provided to SSRN

N.T. Khuong Truong

Curtin University

Date Written: March 22, 2021

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which exposure to climate volatility can influence individual migration decisions in Vietnam. Utilizing the exogenous variation in the rainfall deviation from the local norms within an individual fixed-effects framework, we uncover the negative association between rainfall and the probability of individual migration. Doubling the amount of rainfall relative to the long-run local average reduces individual migration probability by 7.5 percentage points. This relationship could potentially be driven by individuals working in agriculture who are less likely to move due to higher agricultural income from more rainfall. Furthermore, our heterogeneity analyses suggest that rainfall shocks could perpetuate the gender inequality in Vietnam since women lack the ability to cope with climatic shocks through migration.

Keywords: Vietnam, climate change, rainfall, migration

JEL Classification: Q54, O15

Suggested Citation

Luong, Tuan Anh and Le, Kien and Truong, N.T. Khuong, The Impacts of Rainfall Shocks on Migration in Vietnam (March 22, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3809996 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3809996

Tuan Anh Luong (Contact Author)

De Montfort University - Faculty of Business and Law ( email )

United Kingdom

Kien Le

affiliation not provided to SSRN

N.T. Khuong Truong

Curtin University ( email )

Perth, WA
Australia

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