Outcome Effects, Moral Luck and the Hindsight Bias

Kneer, M., & Skoczeń, I. (2023). Outcome effects, moral luck and the hindsight bias. Cognition, 232, 105258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2022.105258

20 Pages Posted: 24 Mar 2021 Last revised: 13 Dec 2022

See all articles by Markus Kneer

Markus Kneer

University of Zurich - Institute of Philosophy

Izabela Skoczeń

Jagiellonian University in Krakow - Faculty of Law and Administration

Date Written: March 22, 2021

Abstract

In a series of ten preregistered experiments (N=2043), we investigate the effect of outcome valence on judgments of probability, negligence, and culpability – a phenomenon sometimes labelled moral (and legal) luck. We found that harmful outcomes, when contrasted with neutral outcomes, lead to increased perceived probability of harm ex post, and consequently to increased attribution of negligence and culpability. Rather than simply postulating a hindsight bias (as is common), we employ a variety of empirical means to demonstrate that the outcome-driven asymmetry across perceived probabilities constitutes a systematic cognitive distortion. We then explore three distinct strategies to alleviate the hindsight bias and its downstream effects on mens rea and culpability ascriptions. Not all are successful, but at least some prove promising. They should, we argue, be taken into consideration in criminal jurisprudence, where distortions due to the hindsight bias are likely considerable and deeply disconcerting.

Keywords: moral luck, legal luck, hindsight bias, negligence, blame, probability

JEL Classification: K14, K40

Suggested Citation

Kneer, Markus and Skoczeń, Izabela, Outcome Effects, Moral Luck and the Hindsight Bias (March 22, 2021). Kneer, M., & Skoczeń, I. (2023). Outcome effects, moral luck and the hindsight bias. Cognition, 232, 105258. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cognition.2022.105258, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3810220 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3810220

Markus Kneer (Contact Author)

University of Zurich - Institute of Philosophy ( email )

Izabela Skoczeń

Jagiellonian University in Krakow - Faculty of Law and Administration ( email )

Krakow
Poland

Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Downloads
195
Abstract Views
907
Rank
264,702
PlumX Metrics