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Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmissibility During the First Pandemic Wave in Spain

20 Pages Posted: 24 Mar 2021

See all articles by Pablo Fernández-Navarro

Pablo Fernández-Navarro

Carlos III Institute of Health - Cancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit

Olivier Nuñez

Carlos III Institute of Health

Despina Pampaka

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department

Clara Mazagatos

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department

Marina Peñuelas

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department

Amparo Larrauri

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department

Diana Gómez-Barroso

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department

More...

Abstract

Background: The analysis of the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic can provide evidence of the impact of measures implemented to reduce its progression. Our aim was to describe the evolution of the pandemic in the different Spanish regions and to examine the effect of the non-pharmaceutical public health interventions during the first epidemic wave on these trends.  

Methods: Daily incidence rates of cases were calculated at national and regional level between 31th of January and 10th of May 2020. Epidemic curves, important dates of interventions and effective reproduction number (Rt) were plotted and transmissibility parameters were calculated. To summarize the geographical heterogeneity in the evolution, regional epidemic curves have been classified into homogeneous groups using a clustering procedure.  

Findings: The incidence rate reached 5 cases per 100,000 on March 1 and peaked at March 20. The Rt gradually decreased after the national lockdown falling below 1 on March 24. Two homogeneous groups of epidemic curves were identified among regions, mainly differentiated by the magnitude of the daily incidence rate and the evolution of the Rt in the period prior to lockdown. However, irrespectively of the previous trend, the lockdown was followed by a steep decrease in the number of cases starting 6 days after its implementation.  

Interpretation: Our results confirm that the restrictive national lockdown efficiently reduced the progression of the epidemic in Spain during the first wave. This effect was similar in the two regional clusters, independent of the previous dynamics of the epidemic.

Funding Statement: The study was supported by Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Spain (ISCIII) grant number COV20-008

Declaration of Interests: All authors declare no competing interests.

Suggested Citation

Fernández-Navarro, Pablo and Nuñez, Olivier and Pampaka, Despina and Mazagatos, Clara and Peñuelas, Marina and Larrauri, Amparo and Gómez-Barroso, Diana, Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmissibility During the First Pandemic Wave in Spain (3/22/2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3811670 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3811670

Pablo Fernández-Navarro

Carlos III Institute of Health - Cancer and Environmental Epidemiology Unit

c/ Monforte de Lemos 5
Madrid, Madrid 28029
Spain

Olivier Nuñez

Carlos III Institute of Health ( email )

c/ Monforte de Lemos 5
Madrid, Madrid 28029
Spain

Despina Pampaka

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department

Madrid
Spain

Clara Mazagatos

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department

Madrid
Spain

Marina Peñuelas

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department

Madrid
Spain

Amparo Larrauri

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department ( email )

Madrid
Spain

Diana Gómez-Barroso (Contact Author)

Carlos III Institute of Health - Communicable Diseases Department ( email )

Madrid
Spain

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