Bond Valuation and Default Risk Reexamined: A Post Reduced Form Model Based on Integer Migration and Portfolio Migration

The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, Vol. XVII, No. 3, September 2020, pp. 23-66

Posted: 27 Mar 2021

See all articles by Brian Barnard

Brian Barnard

University of the Witwatersrand - Wits Business School

Date Written: March 25, 2020

Abstract

The study reexamines bond valuation and default risk by considering and relaxing assumptions regarding integer rating migration and portfolio rating migration, and consequently the implied degree of diversification. A reduced form model, based on (a) rating migration (matrix) serves as the basis and starting point. The study subsequently moves towards a post reduced form bond valuation model by considering portfolio migration and integer migration. Portfolio migration refers to actual counts of issues migrating across rating categories between the intervals of the portfolio—the number of issues with a particular rating at a particular point in time. Integer migration considers the fact that only integer counts of issues can migrate. Both portfolio and integer migration imply more sophisticated interpretation of rating migration matrices. Portfolio migration and integer migration result in interval rating category issue count probability distributions and issue interval rating category intensity (intensity as a probability of occurrence) probability distributions, and consequently cause more sophisticated issue interval cash flow distributions to form. The resultant post reduced form model issue price results are encouraging and promising, and are briefly considered.

Suggested Citation

Barnard, Brian, Bond Valuation and Default Risk Reexamined: A Post Reduced Form Model Based on Integer Migration and Portfolio Migration (March 25, 2020). The IUP Journal of Financial Risk Management, Vol. XVII, No. 3, September 2020, pp. 23-66, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3812202

Brian Barnard (Contact Author)

University of the Witwatersrand - Wits Business School ( email )

Johannesburg
South Africa

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