Alpha Investments

Abstract

Alpha investments private limited was set up in 1988 as a small sub broking unit, with just 3 people running the concern. Having a focus on customer-first attitude, professionalism, research-based value investing has enabled Alpha Investments to blossom as a leading player in the Indian investment services industry. Ayisha, one of the young and promising investment advisors of Alpha Inv. encounters a valuable client Samlinson E (Sam), who wants to decide which shares have to be increased in his investment portfolio. The impact of the present COVID-19 pandemic has hit the economy and markets heavily. The projected gross domestic product of India as reported by the Asian Development Bank is - 11.8 % for the year 2020. Past few months, markets are highly volatile, and the benchmark indices like Sensex and Nifty have lost almost 40%, which in turn affected Sam's portfolio as well. He has holdings in three companies [Exhibit 1] which operates in industries like Commercial vehicles, Housing finance & Cement. The industry outlook of commercial vehicles and housing finance is found to be promising because of the economic revival measures taken by the Government of India. But the future of the cement industry stands unpredictable, due to the drastic fall in real estate and constructions.

The case is written as a dialogue between Ayisha with Sam and Bala, which is focused on the fundamental analysis of Sam's stocks and volatility forecasting in brief. The case gives exposure to management students who are specializing in finance, regarding forecasting procedures and make them familiar with the usage of volatility forecasting in real-time share price movements.

Keywords: Forecasting, Volatility

JEL Classification: G20